Adapting to #climatechaos in a post-1.5°C world

The climate crisis is no longer tomorrow’s problem, it’s reshaping our world now. As we pass the 1.5°C threshold, the impacts are rippling through every layer of society. One group who will increasingly highlight this is the insurance industry.

We already see the growing unease inside the insurance world as companies begin quietly pulling out of risky areas. From Florida’s hurricane-prone coast to California’s fire-ravaged interior, entire regions are being labelled uninsurable. This isn’t theory, it’s happening, and fast.

This shift marks more than a market shakeup. It signals a deep, systemic risk to our current #mainstreaming economic and social systems. Homes without insurance can’t get mortgages. No mortgages, no property value. No value, no tax base for local services. This cascade affects schools, hospitals, fire departments, our whole civic infrastructure.

One likely scenario is what insiders are calling the great abandonment. Here, insurers prioritize short-term solvency and withdraw en masse from high-risk areas. State regulators, under pressure, fail to act fast enough, and governments are left shoring up the mess.

This leads to a dangerous spiral: Massive property devaluation. Financial collapse of public insurers. Taxpayer bailouts of private-sector failures. The end of viable futures in increasingly large zones of abandonment. In short: privatized profits, socialized losses.

At best the path is triage, a slightly better path: insurers embrace adaptive survival strategies, pushing public-private partnerships and local resilience programs. This includes “ruggedized” zones where new building standards and infrastructure investments make life tenable. Still, inaction from governments on decarbonisation means triage is uneven and fragile. Many communities remain exposed and will be left behind.

The best scenario, and the hardest to reach, is where insurers become active agents of change. By pushing bold reforms, they catalyse decarbonisation, resilient infrastructure, and ecosystem restoration. In this “fantasy future”, we manage retreat with dignity. We reshape cities as climate havens. We develop insurance that doesn’t simple assess risk, but reduces it. And we align capital with survival.

How do we make this path happen? If we don’t do the needed fundamental change, then we will need to adapt. On the current #mainstreaming, this means a stronger state, to rethink not just how we build, but where and why we build.

• Stronger zoning laws to prevent high-risk development.
• New building codes for hurricane, fire, and flood resilience.
• Water cycle restoration through urban “Sponge City” design.
• Conditional rebuilds that move people to safer areas or enforce resilient construction.
• Long-term planning for climate haven cities that will face new migration pressures.
• Mooring rings on the second story of all low lighing buildings for us boaters to moor to.

Where we are now, elements of the mess of the great abandonment are already here. But signs of triage and breakthroughs exist too. Whether we collapse into chaos or adapt with creativity depends on the choices we make now, as community, individually, locally, and structurally.

Because in the now obverses to all 1.5°C+ world, the cost of inaction is growing to be too high for us all.

“Climate Realism”